Looking ahead to the political landscape of 2022
There are 71 days until Glenn Youngkin is sworn in as the 74th Governor of Virginia. As of today, the Republicans will have a majority of 52 seats in the next House of Delegates and Democrats will have a small majority in the Senate. Divided government has come back to Virginia after two years of full control under Democratic leadership, affecting the political calculus for nearly everything for the next two years.
What will that mean for policies at the local level in the Thomas Jefferson Planning District? In this special edition of Charlottesville Community Engagement for paid subscribers, here are some thoughts and questions that come to my mind as I prepare to write newsletters during a new political chapter.
Local leadership and policies
Let’s start first with Charlottesville. Democrats Juandiego Wade and Brian Pinkston will join City Council at their first meeting on January 3. The first question is who will serve as Mayor. Will Vice Mayor Sena Magill get the nod, or one of the other four Councilors? Newcomers were selected to be Council’s president in both 2016 and 2018, but perhaps 2022 will be a year when someone who has already been on Council can lead from experience.
“The Mayor should be able to efficiently run a meeting, create an agenda with assistance from Council and staff, be an excellent listener and be a cheerleader for Charlottesville,” said Councilor-elect Juandiego Wade.
Councilor Michael Payne said the next Mayor needs to be someone who can be a leader who motivates the community toward positive change. They’ll need to work with the next City Manager to rebuild Charlottesville’s government
“Not in the pursuit of stability for stability’s sake, but to improve stability so we are able to enact new policies and create new initiatives that directly address long standing issues in our community related to income inequality, affordable housing, the racial wealth gap, climate change, the achievement gap, criminal justice reform, and more,” Payne said.
Councilor-elect Brian Pinkston said Charlottesville does not have a “strong” mayor and the next person to hold the position should lead the meetings and set the agenda.
“I will seek to reach a consensus with my colleagues as to which of us can perform these roles most effectively,” Pinkston said. “We as a team need to advance the City's business in the most expeditious and inclusive way possible. The ‘chair’ of that team should be the person most likely to succeed in facilitating that.”
Albemarle and regional bodies
Who will be the next chair of the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors? Rio District Supervisor Ned Gallaway has been in the position since 2019. Supervisor Donna Price of the Scottsville District is the vice chair.
There’s also the matter of who will serve on regional boards and commissions. Outgoing Supervisor Liz Palmer has served as Albemarle’s elected representative on the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority since 2016, as well as the Rivanna Solid Waste Authority.
“I hope the supervisor who takes my place will support the stable leadership the two authorities have enjoyed for the last several years,” Palmer said. “I would like to see recycling services expanded when practical and I hope the new Board representative will champion the authorities' capital projects for the community such as new convenience centers in select county locations and the South Fork to Ragged Mountain Reservoir raw water line, a major part of the Community Water Supply Plan.”
Councilor Lloyd Snook is the city’s elected representative, but one of the staff positions has been held by whoever was city manager at the time. Five people have served in that role since 2018.
Another question is whether the boundary of the Charlottesville-Albemarle Metropolitan Planning Organization might be expanded after the results of the U.S. 2020 Census. The possibility of adding Lake Monticello and Ruckersville was considered in 2011 and 2012 but did not happen. Will any of the Thomas Jefferson Planning District localities not currently in the MPO seek to be included within it? If so, what would be the potential benefits?
Getting ready for the job
There will be two new Councilors and one new Supervisor. How are they preparing?
Wade and Pinkston have already started to prepare for the transition.
“Brian and I had meetings with Councilors the day after the election,” Wade said in an email. “I think it will take a lot of these types of meetings, meeting key staff and stakeholders and reading key documents.”
Pinkston said he will continue to learn the mechanics of government, such as learning the organization charts.
“I'm going to read the Comprehensive Plan draft even more closely,” Pinkston said. “And I will dig into the details of the budget. I hope, also, to have some early meetings with senior staff, as appropriate.”
Jim Andrews will replace Liz Palmer as the Supervisor for Albemarle’s Samuel Miller District. He said he will continue to prepare for public service by continuing to monitor meetings and reading resources such as the Land Use Handbook written by County Attorney Greg Kamptner.
“In the coming weeks, I hope to meet with other supervisors individually and with several County employees, including the County Executive,” Andrews said. “I will continue to meet with constituents to learn about their concerns, now and throughout my time on the board, of course.”
Policies under the Youngkin administration
As Governor, Youngkin will have the opportunity to influence every aspect of state government. He’ll be able to appoint new people to lead the various Secretariats and fill department and other political positions. Watch closely who is appointed and whether any holdovers from the Northam administration will stay on.
If you’re interested in climate adaptation, you want to pay close attention to work going on at the recently renamed Secretary of Natural and Historic Resources. By the end of this month, the current administration will complete a Virginia Coastal Master Plan intended to help with the state’s response to sea-level rise.
Regardless of what party controls Richmond, coastal localities support infrastructure to deal with the matter. On Tuesday, Virginia Beach voters approved the floating of $567.5 million to pay for infrastructure to address flooding. (results)
Virginia joined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative this year, which requires companies that exceed certain carbon emissions to purchase credits to mitigate their impact. Virginia’s received $142 million from the proceeds so far and that funding will go toward mitigation measures such as flood control. (auction results)
Governor Northam also initiated several equity initiatives regarding the way historic resources are identified and treated within the Commonwealth--will those continue?
Transportation
One of the significant changes in transportation funding in the past eight years has been the creation of the Smart Scale process to fund projects. In four rounds, Charlottesville has been awarded millions for various streetscape projects, none of which has gone to construction. In September, Council indicated they would no longer support contributing a local match for funds received for the West Main Streetscape.
However, the city has not yet formally informed the Virginia Department of Transportation, according to VDOT spokesman Lou Hatter.
The Smart Scale process was mandated by legislation that passed the General Assembly in 2014 to establish a system where transportation projects would be selected according to various criteria. Every year bills are filed to try to alter the process, but it has become fairly routine. Next year, applications will be due for the fifth round, and applications are in development now in advance of an August 2022 deadline.
How will a VDOT under a new administration deal with transportation? In his victory speech, Youngkin pledged to suspend an increase in the gas tax passed in the General Assembly in 2020 to increase funding for transportation projects.
“By law those revenues are to be used for transportation projects within the region where the tax was collected, and Culpeper District was the beneficiary of a significant amount of additional money due to the number of commuters and travelers passing through the district,” Hatter said.
Both Albemarle and Charlottesville did well in the fourth round, but how much funding will be available in the fifth if Youngkin is successful?
And will Charlottesville complete any of the ten Smart Scale projects?
“Project development work has started on five and they are currently being tracked on the VDOT Dashboard,” Hatter said “Of those, four (West Main Street, Fontaine Avenue streetscape, Emmet Street and East High Street) are late. The fifth, Barracks Road, is on time.
Another question is what position the next administration will have on one of Governor Ralph Northam’s major transportation accomplishments. Work is underway to build on the $3.7 billion investment in rail infrastructure announced in December 2019. There are signs this issue has become bi-partisan. At a ceremony this spring for the signing of legislation establishing a New River Valley Passenger Authority, Sixth District U.S. Congressman Morgan Griffith expressed support after years of opposition.
“I have to confess and anybody who studies the record would know that I missed the train in Lynchburg and I missed the train in Roanoke, so I wanted to make sure I got on in Christiansburg,” Griffith said at the time.
Politics under a divided General Assembly
A new speaker will take control of the House of Delegates, adjusting the way that chamber works and likely affecting how legislation makes its way through the entire General Assembly.
The current Council has indicated support for the reconfiguration of Charlottesville City Schools, including a $75 million renovation of Buford Middle School. They’ve been told by city staff that a tax rate increase equivalent to 15 cents is required to cover that cost as well as other items in the Capital Improvement Program.
Supporters of the project have held out hope that legislation would pass the General Assembly to allow Charlottesville voters to decide whether to levy a sales tax increase to generate additional revenue for the school project. Such legislation might have a harder road in a Republican-led House of Delegates. A similar bill to allow Albemarle and Charlottesville community members to vote on a sales tax increase for increased transit did not pass in 2009.
“One obvious issue here is our hope to get approval from the General Assembly for a sales tax increase to use in funding the schools project,” Pinkston said. “Governor-elect Youngkin has said that education is important to him. Hopefully that will provide an opening to find common ground on this and other matters.
The 2021 election did establish a precedent for this avenue of funding. Voters in Danville approved a sales tax referendum with 60.43 of the electorate voting yes. Similar referendums passed in Spotsylvania County, Goochland County, Fairfax County and Loudoun County.
However, a similar measure failed in Pittsylvania County with no votes having a 44-vote majority. Those referendums were all approved by a General Assembly controlled by Democrats with a Democratic governor.
Will Delegate Sally Hudson carry that legislation in 2022? And if so, would it pass both Houses of the General Assembly?
“Charlottesville will have to communicate and build relationships in Richmond no matter what party is in charge,” said Councilor-elect Wade. “Charlottesville will continue to share its priorities with its legislative delegation.”
Andrews pointed out that land use and other local issues are not often partisan in nature, and that time will tell how the next administration behaves towards local government.
“With a divided government, I don't expect legislative changes to the Board's authority, or lack thereof under the Dillon Rule, with respect to hot-button partisan issues,” Andrews said. “The impact may be greater for matters over which the Governor has executive authority or for matters under the jurisdiction of the Attorney General's office.”
Councilor Michael Payne said local elected bodies will need to implement policies enacted in the past two years, but the reform he had wanted to see will stall.
“The General Assembly had begun work on numerous issues – from criminal justice reform, climate change legislation, expanded support for renewable energy, marijuana decriminalization and legalization, expanded Medicaid benefits, gun control, expanded public transportation, collective bargaining and workers’ rights, etc. – that will likely not advance any further,” Payne said.
Payne said he will be watching to see if previously adopted legislation will be repealed, and how any tax cuts will affect local revenues. He added Republican control of all three statewide seats will have an effect.
“We’ll have to monitor closely what executive actions and bills are being considered, learn what impacts they would have on us locally, and get involved in organizing against changes that will negatively impact our community,” Payne said.
Richard Schragger, a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, agreed that there will not be an advancement of the Democratic agenda, but time will tell if Republicans can undo recent changes.
“The Virginia Senate still has a narrow Democratic majority, so any attempts to repeal or replace legislation passed in the last few years could be blocked in the Senate,” Schragger said. “That being said, the Democrat’s advantage in the Senate is very narrow and Republicans might be able to swing some votes from Senate Democrats who feel politically vulnerable.”
Supervisor Donna Price said the 21-19 Democratic majority cannot be relied on for predictions.
“With the Lieutenant Governor being a Republican (tie breaker) in the Senate; with Republicans more likely to vote as a block than are Democrats; and, with the Governor and Attorney General also Republican, I expect that – in reality – this will at the minimum be a slim majority Republican government more than a divided government in at least a number of policy areas,” Price said.
Price added it is important for readers to understand that even though all six Supervisors are Democrats are School Board members, the job of governing the county is not a political position.
“I believe all 13 of us approach our duties and responsibilities in a nonpartisan manner,” Price said. “That will not change.”
Housing plan implementation
Finally, one small illustration of how changes in Richmond may affect changes desired in Charlottesville.
In March, Council adopted an Affordable Housing Plan as the first tier of the Cville Plans Together initiative. The document lists many strategies designed to keep people in their homes, but many of the planks require legislative permission from the General Assembly. These include:
“Advocate for enabling legislation to support just cause evictions and to make other changes to the state’s eviction process.”
“Advocate for enabling legislation to enact rent control in Charlottesville.”
“The city should also advocate at the state level for legislation to support an expanded anti-displacement property tax.”
Will Republicans support any of those policies? What common ground can be found?
The article originally identified the wrong seat for Jim Andrews. Andrews will succeed Liz Palmer in the Samuel Miller District.
The next Council knows it will not have mayor Walker around to blame for its failures so it has now to decide who it will blame for next year's failures.