August 6, 2025: Weldon Cooper Center releases new population projections
Plus: A 22-unit project in Crozet will be retooled after community and stuff input
More than 70,000 people died instantly on this day 80 years ago when an American B-29 dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima. Tens and thousands of others would later die from burns or radiation poisoning. A second bomb would be dropped on Nagasaki three days later, On this August 6, 2025, there are very few people left who were alive that day to remember.
This is Charlottesville Community Engagement, a newsletter intended to inform people about what’s happening in the here and now. I’m Sean Tubbs, always aware of humanity’s power to destroy and determined to do what I can to build.
In today’s installment:
The developer of a proposed 22-unit neighborhood in Crozet has received a deferral to rework the project following a comment letter from staff
The Weldon Cooper Center of Public Service at the University of Virginia has released population projections through 2050 and the region as a whole is expected to grow
Albemarle has been awarded $9.7 million to help prepare land around the Rivanna Station for future development
City Councilor Natalie Oschrin shares information about two upcoming walks
First-shout: Charlottesville Community Bikes
Charlottesville Community Bikes exists to help anyone who wants a bike to get a bike. They also want drivers to be careful out there. As summer winds down, you’ll start seeing more kids and families riding to and from school. Please keep an eye out, slow down, and share the road.
August is also their busiest time for getting bikes to students of all ages. Whether it’s K-12 or UVA and PVCC students, demand for bikes always spikes as the school year begins.
They need donations of all sizes to keep up. If your child has outgrown their bike, or if you have a spare adult bike sitting unused, now is the perfect time to donate. Your support helps kids and students get to school, move independently, and enjoy the freedom that comes with riding.
Bike donations can be dropped off at 917D Preston Ave during shop hours. Visit their website to learn more!
22-unit project in Crozet deferred
For over twenty years, the Crozet Master Plan has been in place to guide development in one of Albemarle’s designated growth areas. The most recent update was approved by the Board of Supervisors in October 2021.
The plan was put together with several guiding principles including one for land use.
“Support and strengthen Crozet’s history as a vibrant community, while ensuring that new and infill development is compatible in scale and design and provides housing choice for all community members,” reads page four of the plan.
Albemarle County offers the public a way to track development through the dashboard that was last updated on April 1, 2025. According to the spreadsheet, there were 1,465 units approved to be built in Crozet that have not yet been constructed. That same dashboard lists three projects under review with a total of 147 units.
In May, Shimp Engineering filed plans for a rezoning for 3.15 acres next to the Cory Farm development just to the north of the Blue Ridge Shopping Center. The request is to go from Residential-1 to Residential-10 in order to build 22 units.
A required public meeting to share information about the Windy Knoll project was held at the June 11 meeting of the Crozet Community Advisory Committee.
“Rezoning from R-1 (low-density residential) to R-10 (medium-density residential) promotes compact development, which aligns with the Albemarle County Comprehensive Plan’s goals for efficient land use,” reads a slide from the presentation for the meeting.
However that calculates to seven units per acre which is above the range called for in the Comprehensive Plan. The property is designated as “neighborhood density residential” in the Crozet Master Plan which has a range of between three and six units per acre.
The rezoning comes at a time when Albemarle is trying to provide more housing supply per a policy adopted by the Board of Supervisors in Albemarle County. The first objective of Housing Albemarle is to “Increase the supply of housing to meet the diverse housing needs of current and future Albemarle County residents.” (view Housing Albemarle)
The presentation from Shimp Engineering also quoted a portion of the master plan which states that there is an appropriate time to consider higher densities.
“When both the Land Use Goals outlined in this chapter and the County’s housing policy are met, it may be appropriate to allow densities to exceed those within recommended density ranges, especially if impacts, such as parking, can be adequately addressed,” reads page 29 of the Crozet Master Plan.
However, on July 11, staff in Albemarle County’s Community Development Department sent a letter with comments on the plan. The letter notes that the density is too high.
“The rezoning request is inconsistent with the Comprehensive Plan’s recommendation for this property,” reads the letter. The document also notes that around fifty people attended the community meeting and argued that the project was not consistent with existing neighborhoods.
The comment letter offered a chance to ask questions.
“What is the height of the proposed buildings?” reads question #7. “Staff believes height should be limited to 35 feet, consistent with [Residential 6].”
R-10 allows for height up to 65 feet.
Staff recommended that the developer request a deferral to allow for the plan to be revised. The developer agreed.
“At this time, we would like to request a deferral to permit additional time to address staff comments,” wrote Polina Andreeva, a site designer with Shimp Engineering.
They have until January 15, 2026 to resubmit under the existing application.
Weldon Cooper Center releases new population projections
As Albemarle County comes closer to adopting a new Comprehensive Plan and Louisa County begins work on their next update, planners will need to incorporate new data from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
The center serves as the official demographer for the Commonwealth of Virginia and population data is used to help guide policy decisions such as the level of funding that localities receive.
In July, Weldon Cooper released the latest population forecasts for 2030, 2040, and 2050.
Albemarle County is projected to have 124,560 people in 2030, up from a 2020 Census count of 112,395. In 2040, Albemarle might have 137,015 residents and 152,770 residents in 2050. That last figure is slightly down from the 155,102 projection from 2022.
The City of Charlottesville is projected to increase in size to 54,717 in 2030, 57,427 in 2040, and 57,832 in 2050. The U.S. Census Count in 2020 was 46,553, a figure that demographers at the Weldon Cooper Center believe is an undercount because University of Virginia students were sent home in the early days of the COVD-19 pandemic. Weldon Cooper puts the 2020 population at 51,050.
Of all the localities in the Thomas Jefferson Planning District, Louisa County is projected to grow the most with a 44.87 percent increase between 2020 and 2050. The most recent Census county was 37,596 and Weldon Cooper projects that number increasing to 54,467 by 2050.
Nelson County is projected to lose population between now and 2050. The Census count in 2020 was 14,775 and projections show that declining to 14,230 in the next quarter century.
Fluvanna had a 2020 count of 27,249 and Weldon Cooper projects that increasing to 29,125 in 2030, 30,487 in 2040, and 33,885 in 2050.
Greene County had a count of 20,552 in 2020. The projections calculate that going up to 22,887 in 2030, 24,876 in 2040, and 37,366 in 2050.
When you add up all the communities, the TJPDC is projected to grow from a U.S. Census count of 259,120 in 2020 to a count of 340,550 in 2050. That’s a 31.43 percent increase.
“The projections expect the Thomas Jefferson PDC to be the 5th fastest growing planning district in Virginia, growing at a similar rate as the Richmond or Winchester regions and much more quickly than most of the Valley or Lynchburg,” said Hamilton Lombard, estimates program manager for the Demographics Research Group at Weldon Cooper.
The Weldon Cooper Center only produces the population projections every few years. The agency calculates estimates each January. Here are five years worth of my reporting on those estimates.
Weldon Cooper: Albemarle grew 11.7 percent in 2010’s; Charlottesville grew 13.8 percent, February 9, 2021
Population growth up 12.8 percent in region, January 29, 2022
Weldon Cooper Center estimates show regional growth of 2.5 percent since 2020 Census, January 31, 2023
Louisa County leads population growth in region with 7.5 percent increase since 2020, Census, January 31, 2024
Charlottesville-area population has grown 3.2 percent since 2020, January 28, 2025
Second shout-out: Friends of JMRL Seeking Donations for Fall Sale
Twice a year, the Friends of the Jefferson-Madison Regional Library organize a week-long sale of books and other items to raise money for the regional library system. This past spring, the group raised over $168,000!
They want to use this shout-out to give a big thank you to all the donors and customers who made the record breaking Spring 2025 sale possible. The funds will support JMRL programs, library materials, reading programs and more! That includes the Books Behind Bars program. Volunteers find and ship books to Virginia inmates at no cost to the inmates.
Now it’s time to get ready for the next sale in the fall. You can help by dropping off books at the Gordon Avenue Library. But not only books: DVDs, CDs, LPs, puzzles, games, sheet music and ephemera! For more details and hours of operation, visit the Friends of the JMRL Library website. The group is also looking for volunteers and could always use new members!
Albemarle County awarded $9.7 million in readiness funds for Rivanna Futures
Albemarle County is investing heavily in the intelligence and defense sector and plans to build a campus for related firms near the Rivanna Station military base in the northern portion of the county.
Last week, Governor Glenn Youngkin announced the award of $9.7 million from the Virginia Business Ready Sites program to assist with making county-owned land shovel-ready for a future developer.
“Business-ready sites are instrumental to Virginia’s ability to compete and win economic development projects and create great new jobs for Virginians,” Youngkin is quoted in an August 1 newsletter.
The funding will be used to design the necessary infrastructure and take other steps necessary to ready the site for development.
“Each step forward, from advancing infrastructure design to completing site readiness work, brings us closer to unlocking the full potential of this property,” said Board of Supervisors Chair Jim Andrews in an August 1 press release. “The state’s partnership reaffirms our shared vision of creating a vibrant and competitive location for high-quality jobs and innovation in Albemarle County.”
To learn more about the Rivanna Futures project, visit the county’s economic development page.
In 2023, the University of Virginia Foundation received $3 million from the program for the North Fork Discovery Program. According to a dashboard, they’ve been paid just over a tenth of that amount so far.
You can track all of the various sites on the VBRSP Dashboard.
Other localities nearby and in Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District also were awarded funds.
Amherst County received $850,000 for a site called the Dillard Tract
August County received $500,000 for Mill Place Commerce Park
Campbell County received $300,000 for Seneca Commerce Park. You can read more in this article on the Altavista Journal.
The City of Lynchburg received $4 million for the Ivy Creek Innovation Park
Pittsylvania County received $1.5 million for the Southern Virginia megasite at Berry Hill
The City of Waynesboro received $1.5 million for the Nature’s Crossing Technology Center
Community walk planned for Greenbrier neighborhood this Sunday
If you’re interested in learning more about one of Charlottesville’s neighborhoods, consider getting up early on Sunday for a community gathering that will take place in a linear fashion.
“The walk is going to explore the Greenbrier neighborhood meeting at Charlottesville High School at 9 a.m. on Sunday so that if there’s any heat, we can bet the heat,” said City Councilor Natalie Oschrin at the August 4 meeting of the City Council.
Oschrin said the walk will be about three miles lon
The walks are put on by Charlottesville’s Bike and Pedestrian Advisory Committee and cosponsored by Ragged Mountain Running Shop.
After the walk there will be a tour of the nearby Botanical Garden of the Piedmont on the eastern edge of the city’s McIntire Park.
Oschrin also used her time to promote the upcoming Loop de Ville on September 27 on the Rivanna Trail.
“You start at the Rivanna River Company area and you walk all around and circumnavigate the city on trails, so you get a great experience with a bunch of people to really explore outdoor spaces,” Oschrin said.
For more information, visit the Loop de Ville website.
Reading material:
Charlottesville City Council weighs needed school renovations, Avery Davis, WVIR NBC29. August 4, 2025
What Happens When a Darden MBA Mixes Bowling, Beverages and a Big Idea?, Caroline Mackey, Darden Report, August 5, 2025
Who won Mayor of the Fair? The kids have spoken, Jesse Higgins, Charlottesville Tomorrow, August 5, 2025
Greene reservoir referendum not moving forward, Heather Price Ives, Charlottesville Daily Progress (paywall), August 5, 2025
Va. delegate proposes child opportunity accounts with data center tax money, other revenue, Shannon Heckt, Virginia Mercury, August 5, 2025
The way that #903 ends
Four stories today and I could have done a fifth and perhaps a sixth but that will have to be tomorrow. Tomorrow I have to work outside of my house because the water will be shut off for the day for a construction project that’s been underway since March.
I chose to live in a city. That means I acknowledge there will be times when there are inconveniences. I live very near to a school that’s been under construction for two years. The conditions are now very different and there’s a new roadway changing the way my house feels.
I am not in control of anything. I have no right to make demands. This is in part because I am a journalist and in most cases I’ve ceded any ability to express most opinions. I also chose a career where I write about multiple perspectives and doing that for so long has altered my personality.
Do I have an identity? I’m not sure. I almost didn’t write a newsletter today because there’s a lot of family business to take care of, but I opted to go ahead and get this one today. This took about four hours or so. My mind is moving much slower than usually because there’s a lot to process.
There’s also a lot to do to get the business end of Town Crier Productions up to speed. Those who pay through Patreon got an update on that yesterday, and if you’re a paid Substack subscriber drop me a line and I’ll share with you. I want to keep going, but I can’t do it the same way I’ve done it since 2020.
That also means I need to build in time for myself during the day. Since going to Kalamazoo I’ve been walking every day and I plan to keep up that momentum. That’s in part why I was grateful for Councilor Oschrin’s announcement of the Greenbrier walk. I would like to go and maybe I’ll bring a microphone and interview people. I used to do that all of the time, but got out of the habit at some point.
As for the opening paragraph, I spent my childhood convinced that nuclear war was imminent. I couldn’t sleep at night for a while and for a while every time I heard a plane overheard I prepared for the blast. I became a journalist in part because I wanted to try to explain things so there weren’t misunderstandings that could lead to the kind of hatred that leads to dehumanizing others.
Anyway, now I’m rambling and must end. I’ll conclude with the stream of King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard’s show in Queens this past Saturday night. This is not the orchestra show, but the regular rock version. It ends with Hypertension, likely one of my favorite songs of all time. That’s the sort of thing I’ll give an opinion on, but that will shift too! The music begins after a 15-minute pre-roll.
Hi Sean, I'd like to read your update. I don't know where I subscribe to you from. Perhaps outer space! I hope you are doing OK. Appreciate your work.